CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001)

Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-04-17T01:39:10Z
## Message ID: 20240417-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.  

Ensemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001 and 2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240415-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME with ID 2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001 may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:

- STEREO A between about 2024-04-16T16:10Z and 2024-04-17T08:22Z (average arrival 2024-04-17T01:26Z) for 100% of simulations.

Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-04-16T17:15Z and 2024-04-17T07:52Z (average arrival 2024-04-17T01:09Z) for 100% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 95% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-7 range (below minor to strong).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_STA_stack.gif

## Notes:
The two CMEs in this simulation did not combine prior to impacting STEREO A and Earth, leading to a double peaked arrival in the STEREO A and Earth timelines. The second CME (2024-04-15T06:48Z) may impact STEREO A around 2024-04-17T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) and Earth around 2024-04-17T15:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on visual inspection of the simulation output.

Additionally, the combined flank of the CMEs were also predicted to impact Lucy at 2024-04-21T00:00Z (glancing blow) and Psyche at 2024-04-21T18:00Z (glancing blow) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240415-AL-002).  

Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/Detailed_results_20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061.txt
###



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